Losses to Soybean Rust Can Add Up Quickly

Calculating the economic cost of soybean rust is a matter of both subtraction and addition - subtracting lost yields, while adding the cost of protective fungicide treatments.

Yield losses in infected nations can range as high as 80 percent, according to the USDA/APHIS:

How does this translate into dollars? As a measuring stick, Brazilian growers lost an estimated $1.3 billion in yields and fungicide costs to soybean rust in 2003. Total yield losses could reach 150 million bushels this year, with fungicide costs likely topping $1 billion.

Of course, the burning question for U.S. growers is the size of potential losses to the domestic crop. Conservative estimates range from 50 percent in the Mississippi Delta and southeastern coastal states to 10 percent in other production areas.

High market prices for soybeans compound the potential economic loss in the United States. It also increases the value of a fungicide treatment, which costs an average of $16 to $25 per acre. Under a worst-case scenario, the USDA estimates that the economic effect of a soybean rust outbreak on growers, consumers and affiliated industries could range from $7 billion to $11 billion.

Perhaps the most important economic calculation for growers is to determine the yield potential and market value of their crop, weigh that against the per-acre cost of fungicide treatment and make a decision that gives them the best possible return on their investment.